Tongwei (600438): The profit prospect of the bottom of the battery chip will be full

Tongwei (600438): The profit prospect of the bottom of the battery chip will be full
The company released the semi-annual report for 2019 and reported that the combined company’s revenue was attributed to net profit, and the net profit after deduction was 161.24, 14.51, 13.8.6 billion, an increase of 29 each year.39%, 58.01%, 55.69%.Performance continued to maintain high growth.The company has continued to increase in the field of advanced materials and high-efficiency battery chips, and has become a double leader in silicon materials and battery chips. It is expected that with the price of PERC batteries at the end of the third quarter and the bottom of the fourth quarter, the company’s battery profitability is expected to rebound, and with the capacity utilization rateThe year-on-year increase is continuously increasing, and it is expected that the amount of investment in the second half of the year will increase at least 10% from the first half.The company’s Baotou and Leshan total 6 injection of new silicon material capacity gradually released, the first half of the capacity released about 20%, it is expected that the second half of the production capacity will be fully released.We are optimistic about the company’s lean management level and excellent cost control ability, and maintain the “Highly Recommended-A” rating with a target price of 15.5-16 years old.5 yuan. Performance maintained high growth.In the first half of 2019, the company’s revenue was attributed to its net profit, and the net profit after deduction was 161.24, 14.51, 13.8.6 billion, an increase of 29 each year.39%, 58.01%, 55.69%.Among them, the income in the second quarter was attributed to net profit, and the net profit after deduction was 99.55, 9.60, 9.11 trillion, an increase of 37 each year.52%, 60.22%, 56.18%. Profitability Analysis.In the first half of the year, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 22.01%, an annual increase of 2.44 per share, sales, management, and financial expense ratios are 2.70%, 6.50%, 2.11%, a decline of 0 per year.77, up 0.40, 1.For 08 shares per share, the increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to the conversion of solid-state construction projects into capitalization of index expenditures and the expansion of external financing.The overall decline in the company’s first half net profit was 9.05%, rising by 1 every year.57 units. Breakdown of business.In the first half of 2019, the company’s sales of silicon materials2.28 Initially, it grew by 162 per year.85%, with a price drop of 40-50%, still achieving 16.With a gross profit margin of 98%, it is one of the few companies in the industry that continues to maintain profitability.In the first half of the year, the company’s battery chip sales were about 6GW, an increase of 97% year-on-year, of which monocrystalline PERC4.4GW, polycrystalline 1.About 6GW.The company’s battery capacity utilization rate of the old line reached 110-120%, the new line 110%, and subsequently increased to 120%. Battery profitability is expected to bottom out in the third quarter, and silicon materials will be fully discharged.The price of PERC batteries has dropped significantly in the past two months, mainly due to the short-term internal demand not yet activated and the proliferation of PERC capacity. It is expected that prices will pick up at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Battery profitability is expected to bottom out.The capacity utilization rate of the completed 6gw monocrystalline cells has 合肥夜网 been increasing month by month, and it is expected that the amount of investment in the second half of the year will increase at least 10% from the first half.The company’s Baotou and Leshan totaled 6 new capacity to be gradually released. In the first half of the year, about 20% of the capacity was released. It is expected that the capacity will be fully released in the second half of the year. Investment suggestion: Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” rating, target price is 15.5-16 years old.5 yuan. Risk warning: domestic installed capacity is less than expected, overseas demand is less than expected, and battery prices are rising less than expected.

Zoomlion (000157): Significant increase in revenue and net profit attributable to mothers New products continue to develop

Zoomlion (000157): Significant increase in revenue and net profit attributable to mothers New products continue to develop

Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 222.

62 ppm, an increase of 51 in ten years.

23%, net profit attributable to parent company 25.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 198 in ten years.

11%; of which, the second quarter achieved operating income of 132.

45 ppm, an increase of 58 in ten years.

44%, achieving net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.

740,000 yuan, an increase of 222 in ten years.


Profitability improved significantly and cash flow improved significantly.

The company achieved operating cash flow in the first half of the year35.

75 ppm, an increase of 124 in ten years.

19%; reported company gross profit margin 30.

0%, up 4 every year.

41 units; sales expense ratio reached 8.

45%, rising by 0 every year.

21 units; total management and R & D costs5.

71%, down by 1 every year.

11 units; financial expense ratio 2.

76%, down by 1 every year.

The 50 averages are mainly due to the impact of exchange rate changes; the net profit 武汉夜网论坛 rate to mothers reached 11.

57%, an increase of 5 per year.

Seven mergers have significantly enhanced the company’s profitability.

The construction machinery business grew strongly and new products continued to develop.

Reporting baseline, the company’s construction machinery product sales revenue was 210.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.

62%, achieving a gross profit margin of 29.

74%, an increase of 4 per year.

14 units.

1) The concrete machinery business realized operating income of 74.

900,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

15%, achieving a gross profit margin of 27.

37%, an increase of 5 per year.

21 units; 2) The operating income of lifting machinery business reached 110.

5.0 billion, an annual increase of 94.

75%, achieving a gross profit margin of 32.

17%, an increase of 3 per year.

83 units, of which Hunan Zoomlion Construction Crane Machinery Co., Ltd., a subsidiary, realized operating income of 38.4.3 billion, achieving net profit3.

7.7 billion; 3) Operating income from other machinery and product businesses25.

21 ppm, an increase of 13 per year.

06%, achieving a gross profit margin of 26.

15%, down by 1 every year.

29 units.

The report pointed out that the company ‘s domestic market share of lifting machinery and concrete machinery has continued to be “one of the best”. Among them, construction cranes and long boom pump trucks continue to maintain the number one position in the industry. The domestic market share of truck cranes has increased by 6 compared with 2018.

8 pct.

Emerging product aerial platforms have made a good start and are expected to become the first echelon enterprise in the field of aerial platforms; earthmoving machinery has completed the nationwide sales and service network layout and is expected to become a strong growth point for the company in the future.

Agricultural machinery remained stable, and financial services business achieved substantial growth.

The company’s agricultural machinery business reported operating income9.

1.1 billion, down 2 a year.

57%, achieving a gross profit margin of 10.

37%, an increase of 0 every year.

17 averages.

The company’s market advantage in the agricultural machinery business remains solid.

Financial services business realized operating income 3.

350,000 yuan, an increase of 73 in ten years.

28%, achieving a gross profit margin of 99.

73%, a decline of 0 every year.

05 averages.

The company’s financing guarantee company operates effectively, cooperates with the industrial sector to improve the industrial chain layout, and through expanding cooperation with the China Enterprise Cloud Chain, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain can enjoy more reasonable, convenient and flexible financial services, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.

profit prediction.

We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2021.

51, 0.

63, 0.

76 yuan / share, the net net asset is 5.

25, 5.


97 yuan / share, the company’s closing price on August 30, 2019 5.

30 yuan / share, corresponding to 1 each of 2019-2021 PB.

01, 0.

95, 0.

89 times, corresponding to 10 each for PE.

39, 8.

41, 6.

97 times.

Give the company 1 of 2019.


35 times PB, corresponding to a reasonable value range 5.78-7.

09 yuan, corresponding to PE 11 in 2019.


90 times, which is in the range of the estimated level of comparable companies.

Risk reminder: the demand of the construction machinery industry decreases, the agricultural machinery business continues to decrease, new product progress exceeds expectations, and bad debt losses increase.

Xinbao Shares (002705) 19Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Exchange Exchange Improves Profits and Revitalizes Domestic Sales

Xinbao Shares (002705) 19Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Exchange Exchange Improves Profits and Revitalizes Domestic Sales

Event description: The company issued a 19Q1 performance forecast.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will be 6,452 in 19Q1.


20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 50% -100%.

The company’s 19Q1 profit growth is high: 1) The company focuses on its main business, improves efficiency and enhances product profitability through product innovation and automation construction; 2) The exchange loss in the financial expenses of the company in 18Q1 is about 61 million, and it is expected that 19Q1 will decrease from the same period last year.

The Air Force Company also released a performance report for 2018, which is expected to achieve revenue of 84 in 2018.

400 million, a year-on-year increase of +2.

7%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 5.

100 million, a year-on-year increase of +23.


Looking at Xinbao from another angle: Behind the “explosion” phenomenon, Xinbao has accumulated new energy.

The company’s main business is export OEM business. Under the inertia thinking, the market often pays little attention to the domestic sales of Xinbao.

Take the Mofei brand as an example: Mofei is a British small household appliance brand that the company represents.

9, the company launched the MR9088 multi-function cooking pot, with exquisite appearance, strong practicality, high cost performance quickly became a “net red” explosion, it is expected that this single product investment in all channels will exceed 100 million (factory)End); 2018.

12 companies launched MR6080 vacuum portable kettle, 19.

In early March, it launched the MR9600 small portable juicer, which was sold out once.

It is expected that the growth rate of Xinbao’s domestic sales in 19Q1 is expected to double.

We believe that the current market environment and the company’s internal changes in the following three aspects are worthy of everyone’s change of thinking and refreshing their understanding of Xinbao shares: 1) The format of online emerging channels such as content e-commerce provides naturalsoil.

Different from the era of rough e-commerce platform’s traffic bonus, in the era of content e-commerce, excellent products + efficient marketing strategies can quickly gather traffic, generate explosive models, and increase brand awareness.

This is the objective basis on which Mofei ‘s “explosive money” strategy can be effectively promoted.

2) Under the trend of de-branding, the value of a high-quality and efficient supply chain is highlighted.

Netease carefully selected, Mingchuang Youpin, Xiaomi Youpin, committed to providing users with high-quality and affordable products, focusing on product power; Pinduoduo quickly harvested low-end traffic, and the low-cost products sold also required extremely high costsControl ability, in the voice of society, quality control is a big problem that needs to be solved.

The supply chain advantages accumulated by Xinbao for many years are the company’s strong inherent advantages.

3) The company’s moderately relaxed brand growth environment in recent years has effectively given play to the subjective initiative of its domestic sales teams.

Company nearly 2?
For 3 years, no strict index assessment has been conducted for internal sales, the growth environment is 天津夜网 relaxed, and the brand team can be independently cultivated.

As a young brand without burden, Mofei took the lead in showing results.

Investment advice: Temporary advice actively pays attention to the promotion of new products, and tracks the export boom and exchange rate changes; in the long-term perspective, the company’s supply chain value highlighted in the new business model has reached a restructuring.

Risk reminder: Domestic brand product promotion exceeds expectations, Sino-U.S. Trade frictions intensify

Hexing Packaging (002228): Steady expansion of packaging business and rapid growth of supply chain services

Hexing Packaging (002228): Steady expansion of packaging business and rapid growth of supply chain services

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report.

Initially realized operating income 121.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.

1%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 2.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 64.

5%, to achieve net profit after deduction 2

2 ‰, the annual growth rate is 68.


As the company adjusted its 2017 and 2016 revenue according to the “2017 Annual Report of Listed Companies Accounting Supervision Report” issued by the Securities and Futures Commission in August 2018, the company ‘s 17-year base was raised and it will acquire Hezhong Chuangya (Asia)) Produced 2.

The non-operating income of USD 9.6 billion is adjusted to 16 years. Therefore, the growth rate of the annual report for the 18 years is earlier than the data in the semi-annual report and the quarterly report for 18 years. However, the company’s consolidated packaging business has developed steadily, and the supply chain services have expanded rapidly.expected.

The pressure on raw material prices has dropped, and operating capacity has continued to improve.

By business, packaging achieved revenue of 93.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.

5%, supply chain services realized revenue 28.

4 ‰, an increase of 149 in ten years.


The company scale achieved gross profit margin of 12.

5%, down by 1 every year.

3pp, one is because the proportion of supply chain service sales with a low gross profit margin has increased, and the other is because the average price of corrugated paper, the main raw material, has increased by about 5% over the 17-year period.

The price of corrugated paper has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. The current price has dropped by about 32% from the 18-year high, and the company’s gross profit margin has room for improvement.

The company’s highest three-rate interest rate is 8.

9%, a decline of 0 per year.

4pp, mainly because the company continued to promote the construction of standardized factories and a refined management system, which improved operational efficiency.

The company accrued 5,809 impairment losses on goodwill throughout the year.

80,000 yuan, the first and foremost is the deterioration of Daqing Huayang’s operating capacity. After the asset revaluation, approximately 51.64 million goodwill impairment losses were accrued.

The overall scale of the company’s book goodwill is about 17.23 million, which will be expanded at least. It will not affect the company’s net profit in the future.

In terms of cash flow, the company’s 18-year operating cash flow increased by 344% to reach 5.

600 million US dollars, mainly benefited from the good customer repayment, the company expanded the scale of centralized procurement and increased bill settlement.

Outbound mergers and acquisitions help to integrate production capacity and regional balanced development.

The company completed the acquisition of 100% of Hezhong Chuangya (Asia) in the first half of 2018.

The merger of Hezhongzhong can realize the complementary advantages of the joint venture company. Hexing’s advantageous regions are in South China and Central China. By integrating Hezhong Chuangya, the company’s production capacity distribution and sales in East China, North China, Southwest, and Northeast China are significantlyWith the improvement, the proportion of the four regions in total revenue increased by 2pp, 2 respectively.

3pp, 2.

7pp and 1.

1pp, the company’s regional layout 深圳SPA会所 is more reasonable, and the market area will be further strengthened.

M & A integration has also driven the company’s packaging business to achieve steady growth, achieving revenue of 93 in 18 years.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.

5%, the IPS / PSCP project continues to advance, and the strategic transformation is progressing smoothly.

The company continued to advance the “100 billion services” strategy, and the Industrial Supply Chain Cloud Platform (PSCP) and Intelligent Packaging Integration Services (IPS) continued to explode in 18 years.Supply chain services have gradually realized revenue for 18 years.

4 ‰, a year-on-year increase of 150%, and an increase in scale, the gross profit margin of supply chain services has also improved significantly, achieving a gross profit margin of 4 in 18 years.

5%, a significant increase every year.


IPS has signed contracts with many customers such as Jabil and Goodbaby, and has invested in more than 10 packaging production lines.

Currently in the equipment procurement stage, the project progress is in line with expectations.

At present, the PSCP project has reached 1,400 customers, an increase of 700 from the end of 2017, and it is still developing at a high speed. If the subsequent collaboration with IPS is realized, the company’s packaging services and supply capabilities will be fully enhanced.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

32 yuan, 0.

37 yuan, 0.

43 yuan, corresponding to PE is 16 times, 14 times and 12 times.

Based on the company’s historical estimates and industry estimates, the PE is given 18 times the 19-year target price.

76 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of intensified market competition leading to terminal sales being lower than expected; the risk of the PSCP business developing less than expected.

Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Growth in sales expenses drags down performance and optimistic about long-term growth of the company

Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Growth in sales expenses drags down performance and optimistic about long-term growth of the company
Event: The company achieved operating income in the first three quarters9.68 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.34%, net profit attributable to mother 1.84 ppm, an increase of 14 years.26%.Among them Q3 realized operating income 2.59 trillion, an increase of 9 in ten years.48%, net profit attributable to mother 0.28 ppm, -39 per year.50%, performance is lower than market expectations. Proactively adjust delivery, revenue is slightly affected by the company Q3 revenue is slightly lower than expected, the growth rate is earlier than Q1, Q2 has declined, mainly by the company to control the goods in Q3, while the company continues to adjust the product structure, and actively reduce XiangquanSales.In order to straighten out the market price of mainstream alcoholic products, the company made a price for the red altar. On June 28 this year, the alcoholic series was completely discontinued in the Hunan market until the supply was resumed before the Mid-Autumn Festival.force.In addition, since this year, the company has been adjusting the product structure, and the amount of supplements in Xiangquan has improved.From a regional point of view, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, Northeast and other regions outside the province have maintained rapid growth. The fact is that the growth rate of the region within the province has dragged down income. The increase in the proportion of internal reference and alcoholic liquor drove the gross profit margin to continue to rise, and the gross profit margin of Q3 company was 77.56%, increasing by 0 every year.87 points. Sales expenses increased significantly. Net profit margin was dragged down. Starting from the third quarter of last year, the company increased consumer promotion and market expenditures, especially increasing advertising expenses. At the same time, it increased the number of marketing personnel in the province and worked hard on the provincial market. Q3 sales expense ratio was 37.53%, an increase of 10 per year.20pct, the proportion of advertising costs 四川耍耍网 is expected to increase.The management expense ratio Q3 was basically the same as the previous two quarters at 11.07%, the financial expense ratio slightly decreased to -2.49%. The expected increase in selling expenses has eroded profits and led to a drag on the net interest rate, which was 10 in Q3.88%, a decline of 8 per year.81 points. Accounts received in advance increased significantly, optimistic about the Spring Festival peak season. In terms of accounts received in advance, Q3 accounts received in advance increased by 59.86 million yuan, an increase of 77.43 million yuan.The actual increase in advance account payments, the expansion is related to the company’s fiscal year time adjustment, and the extension also confirms the company’s Q3 delivery progress forecast.This year’s Spring Festival is more advanced (Mid-January), and the peak season sales will be concentrated in Q4, which is optimistic about the company’s Spring Festival peak season sales. From the perspective of cash flow, Q3’s net operating cash flow was 56.32 million yuan, an increase of 74.82 million yuan over the same period last year, an acceptable improvement over last year. Profit forecast Since COFCO became the main alcoholic drinker, it has been continuously adjusted and reformed. After more than three years of review, the company has completed reforms of sales channels, product integration, brand expansion, and personnel expenditure adjustments. Reform dividends will soon be released.Although Q3’s revenue growth has improved, it may still be contradictory to complete the US $ 1.5 billion sales target set by COFCO. We expect sales revenue to increase by 27 in 2019 and 2020.82% and 20.16%, achieving a ten-year increase in net profit attributable to mothers.49% and 25.27%, earnings per share are 0.82 yuan and 1.03 yuan.It is expected that the company’s revenue and profits will be in a period of rapid growth in the next few years. As the regional market leader in Hunan, it will give an estimate of 38 times in 2020 with a target price of 39 yuan and a buy rating. Risks suggest that the liquor industry has undergone a major adjustment, and the macro economy has experienced substantial growth; major defects have emerged in the merger of the company, and the promotion of high-end products has fallen short of market expectations.

Yili shares (600887) first quarterly report comments: demand worry-free and long-term development

Yili shares (600887) first quarterly report comments: demand worry-free and long-term development

Event Yili shares announced the 2019 first quarter report, operating income of 230 in 19Q1.

7.7 billion, ten years +17.

89%; net profit attributable to mothers22.

76 trillion, ten years +8.

36%, deducting non-net profit 21.

820,000 yuan, ten years +9.

2%, EPS is 0.

37 yuan.

  Highlights of investment Room temperature products performed well, and income continued to grow rapidly.

1Q1 achieved operating income of 230.

7.7 billion, +17 per year.

89%, a growth rate of -6 years.

67pct, +0.

32pct, achieving the lowest growth rate is mainly due to the base difference caused by the misalignment of the Spring Festival. The company still maintained high growth under a high base, indicating that demand is stable.

In terms of different categories, Nielsen Zero Research data shows that the market share of 19Q1 company’s room temperature / low temperature liquid milk / infant formula is 38.

8% / 15.

7% / 6.

3%, +3 each year.

0pct / -1.

3pct / + 0.

5pct, in which the room temperature category’s market share increased significantly, indicating that the company’s channels continue to sink and market penetration has increased.

The two major room temperature single-product products, Amuse and Jindian, are expected to grow at + 30% and + 20% intervals, and the total revenue share is expected to be close to 35%, which is the main reason for the growth of room temperature products.

The company’s short-term strategic focus is expected to widen the sales gap with competing products, and the follow-up of room temperature products is expected to remain the focus.

  Structure optimization + reduction of buying gifts drove upward gross margin.

The company’s gross profit margin for the 19Q1 was 39.

95%, ten years +1.

15pct, ring than +1.

61 points.

The gross profit margin of Q4 rebounded every six months from the previous quarter, mainly due to the decrease in the volume of high-end products (milk powder and high-end liquid milk) and purchase promotions during the pre-holiday peak season, which was partially offset by the increase in raw milk prices.

In the short term, domestic environmental production restrictions have increased the supply of raw milk for 18 years, and raw milk prices have risen in the second half of 18 years.

However, starting from the medium term, the price of raw milk is still at a safe price difference from the feed price. There is insufficient motivation to reduce the production of raw milk globally. If it is not a natural disaster, it will be difficult for the price of raw milk to start a growth cycle in 19 years.-1.


  Expenses increased, and net interest margin fell slightly in ten years.

1Q1 company’s overall expense ratio reached 28.

10%, +1.


Among them, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios are 24.

07% / 4.08% / 0.

40% /-0.

45%, multiple sales / management / financial expense ratios respectively +1.

31pct / + 0.

27pct / -0.

66 points, sales expense ratio remained relatively high, competition in major industries is still fierce, due to the company’s expansion of advertising.

The maximum expense ratio can be controlled.

In 19Q1, the company realized net profit attributable to mothers22.

76 trillion, ten years +8.

36%; 19Q1 net profit reached 9.

84%, -0 per year.

79pct, +2 chain.

2pct, significantly improved profitability.

  From the perspective of middle school, there is still uncertainty in the industry structure, but in the long run, a good trend of platform development has emerged.

  Medium-term: Competition is still uncertain, and Yili has the first-mover advantage in channels.

Mengniu stepped up product promotion and brand promotion in the early 18s in an effort to expand market share.

In order to keep the market share, Yili also passively increased the expansion speed, which led to the rise in the expense ratio in the first half of the year and dragged down its performance.

It is worth pointing out that Yili’s channels are more sinking than Mengniu’s. The former accounts for 40% in the third and fourth tier and township markets, but 36%. Correspondingly, Yili is in the third and fourth tier and township markets.The share reaches 33% -35%, while Mengniu’s 28-32%. Low-tier cities will be the core market for the future increase in demand for the dairy industry.

In our judgment, Mengniu may still maintain a strong attitude in its 杭州夜网 competitive strategy. The uncertainty of the preliminary competitive landscape may still make its performance likely to change. However, considering the channel ‘s leading issue board in Yili ‘s lower-tier market, it is expected that Yili ‘s defensive position will remainAdvantages.

  Long-term: The core strategy of Yili’s strategic layout is category expansion, which is expected to become the Chinese version of Nestle.

The company proposes a long-term plan to become a 100 billion-level health food group by 2020. It is expected to expand into the dairy industry and other categories through endogenous and extended mergers and acquisitions, providing new momentum for the company’s long-term growth.

Endogenous aspects: The company newly launched “Iran” milk ore light in March 19, and then retested the water beverage industry. 重庆耍耍网 Product packaging and positioning are all interesting.

In terms of extension: Following the announcement of the acquisition of Thai ice cream brand CHOMTHANA in 18 years, the company plans to re-acquire in New Zealand, and the trend of expanding regions and enriching categories is obvious.

Category expansion can share channel resources and diminish marginal expansion. At the same time, Yili’s merger and acquisition expansion is cautious, and it is preferred that the acquisition target can produce synergy with the company and has a foundation of performance stability.

  Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company is a leading dairy company, with its main business expanding and upgrading + platformization, and its future performance prospects are considerable.

We adjusted our profit forecast based on the company’s annual report. We estimate that the company’s revenue in 2019 and 2020 will be 900.

400 million (+13.

2%) and 1017.

100 million (+13.

0%) and net profit was 72.

0 billion (+11.

8%) and 81.

300 million (+13.

0%), corresponding to the closing price on April 25, 2019. The company’s PE in 2019 and 2020 will be 26x and 23x, respectively.

We maintain the rating of “Prudent Overweight” and advise investors to pay more attention.

  Risk reminders: macroeconomic fluctuations, raw material cost fluctuations, increased industry competition, and food safety issues

Haitian Flavor (603288): Stable revenue and long-term development

Haitian Flavor (603288): Stable revenue and long-term development

The event company released the first half of 2019 annual report. The company achieved operating income of 101 in the first half of the year.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

51%; net profit attributable to mothers27.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 22 in ten years.


Among them, the operating income in the second quarter was 46.

7 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

00%; net profit attributable to mother is 12.

73 ppm, a +10 increase over ten years.


A brief comment on the revenue growth was in line with expectations. The three main products have a stable growth industry structure. The catering industry has a good growth momentum.

From January to July, domestic catering revenue was 249.37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.

4%; Catering income above budget is USD 5,238 trillion, with an annual increase of 7.


In this context, the company’s revenue continued to grow steadily in the first half of the year, achieving operating income of 101.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.


In terms of different products, the company’s three core products, soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce business, grew steadily, of which soy sauce revenue was 59.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

61%; Seasoning sauce income 12.

61 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

48%; oyster sauce income 17.

15 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.


By region, the western region realized income11.

14 ‰, an increase of 23 per year.

93%, the speed of growth; the central region realized income 19.

43 ppm, an increase of 18 per year.

79%; the eastern region realized income 20.

61 ppm, an increase of 14 per year.

15%; income in the southern region was 20.

11 ‰, an increase of 11 per year.

21%; Beijing area realized income 25.

5.9 billion, an increase of 10 every year.


In terms of different channels, the revenue from its main business offline channels was 94.

8 billion, accounting for 97.

86% per year 13.90%; rapid development of online channels, income 2.

07 billion, accounting for 2%.

14%, an increase of 44 per year.


In addition, the number of company dealers increased by 485 to 5,369 in H1 in 19 years, of which the net increase in the eastern, southern, central, northern, and western regions was 66, 58, 97, 164, and 100, and the intensive cultivation of channels continued to advance.

The decline in gross profit margin is a short-term effect. It is expected that the company’s gross profit margin will be 44 in the medium term.

86% every year -2.

25pct, with a single Q2 gross margin of 43.

78% per year -3.

81 points.

The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the rising cost pressure caused by the company’s technological transformation and capacity expansion construction of the Gaoming production line this year. This effect can be eliminated within the period; gradually, Q2 packaging (glass bottles) and some food additivesRising prices suppressed gross margin performance; and the relatively higher proportion of products such as oyster sauce increased structurally and lowered the company’s overall gross margin.

Costs fell and hedging costs rose, net interest rates rose significantly, and the report realized net parent profit of approximately 27.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 22 in ten years.

34%; Net profit margin is 27.

07%, increase by 1 every year.

29 points.

The first is the decline in the company’s selling expenses and financial expenses.

H1’s selling expenses were 11.

1.7 billion, down 5 previously.

04%, the initial decrease in sales expenses was that some distributors chose the method of product self-lifting, which resulted in a reduction in freight expenses. The total freight reported was 2.

5.5 billion, down 33 before.


H1 finance costs -1.

5.2 billion, an increase of 123 every year.

39%, mainly due to 杭州夜网 the increase in interest income from deposits in the current period.

H1 Management Fee Expense 1.

30% every year -0.

14pct, H1 R & D expenses 2.

67%, a slight decrease of 0 a year.

05pct also contributed positively to the company’s net profit.

In addition, H1’s other income is 0.

69 ppm, an increase of 458 per year.

03%, contributed positive growth in net profit, mainly due to increased government subsidies.

During the current period, the company implemented the new accounting standards for financial instruments, which caused changes in fair value gains and investment gains. Part of the bank’s wealth management product income from investment gains was included in the fair value gains and losses account, of which hedging had little effect on net interest rates.
The top of the leader is solid, and the growth premium for long-term stable development is long-term. The industry has a good track, and the volume and price have grown steadily. The company’s market share has steadily increased, and more industries can continue to grow steadily through the solid leader.

In the soy sauce category, the company’s current city share is expected to be close to 18%, and the rapid increase of 15% before 2016, with significant competitive advantages. In addition, the company’s rapid development of seasoning sauce and oyster sauce business has taken shape, using brand influence and channelsThere is certain room for improvement in advantages, scale and performance.

In the short term, the company is expected to usher in a new round of price increases in the second half of the year.

Historically, the company raised prices every two years on average, smoothly passing on the pressure of rising costs. The last price increase was in early 2017. It is expected that the company will enter a new round of price increase in the second half of 2019 to ensure steady growth next year.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations for companies expected in 2019?
The revenue in 2021 will be 198.
49, 230.
21, 265.

25 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

5%, 16.

0%, 15.

2%; net profit is 52.

57, 62.

90, 74.

19 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

4%, 19.

7%, 17.

9%; corresponding EPS is 1.

95, 2.

33, 2.

75 yuan.

Corresponding to 2019?
The dynamic PE in 2021 will be 50.


8, 35.

5 times.

The risks include food safety risks, risks of raw material price fluctuations, and risks of declining industry prosperity.

Xinhecheng (002001): The performance is in line with expectations, optimistic about the change in the vitamin E industry pattern and its positive impact on the company

Xinhecheng (002001): The performance is in line with expectations, optimistic about the change in the vitamin E industry pattern and its positive impact on the company

Event: Xinhecheng released its semi-annual report for 2019, with a total operating income of 38 in the first half of 2019.

67 ppm, a decrease of 16 per year.

85%, net profit is 11.

5.6 billion, down 43 each year.

87%, the basic EPS is 0.

54 yuan, the average ROE is 7.

twenty two%.

Corresponding to the second quarter of 2019 operating income20.

USD 3.1 billion, an increase of 10 from the first quarter.

62%, net profit 6.

4.5 billion, an increase of 26.

twenty two%.

Net profit after deduction 5.

7.4 billion, an increase of 19 from the previous month.


Comments: 1.

The performance is in line with expectations, and the non-profit deduction in the second quarter increased by 19.

09%, mainly related to the increase in vitamin A and vitamin E prices and the volume of new materials business.

The company’s net profit in the first half of 2019 was lower than in 2018, and there was a significant decrease in the first half of the year. This is related to the company’s high base in the first half of 2018. The domestic price of vitamin A in the first quarter of 2018 was a historical high, and the average price in the first quarter was 1349 yuan / kg.

The company’s net profit after deduction for the second quarter increased by 19 from the previous quarter.

The good performance of 09% was related to the increase in the price of vitamin A and maintaining a high level, the initial upward trend in the price of vitamin E, and the release of new materials business, which increased revenue by 116.



We are optimistic about the positive impact of the vitamin E industry structure on the company.

The transfer of Vitamin E in the field of Vitamin E and DSM has been completed. After the transaction is completed, the vitamin E industry structure has been transformed into DSM-Nente Technology, BASF, Xinhecheng, Xinhecheng.

Nante Technology has changed from the industry’s reverser to the maintainer of the industry pattern. The industry pattern has returned to the vitamin E bull market in 2008-2012, when the price of vitamin E was between 100 and 250 yuan / fluctuation.

The vitamin E industry is improving. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of each company is at a high level.

Each mentality is expected to change from a price war to maximize profits, and vitamin E prices are expected to rise in the future.

The company’s vitamin E production capacity is 40,000 tons of powder, and the Shandong 4 Vitamin E project 南宁桑拿 is under construction and is expected to be put into production within the year.


Pay attention to the company’s medium and long-term growth.

The company’s Shandong Nutrition Project and Heilongjiang Fermentation Project are gradually progressing. Some projects are expected to be completed within the year, and the vitamin monomers will be covered by the entire category.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: We maintain our previous earnings forecast and estimate the company’s net profit for the year 19-21 to be 27.



8.4 billion, with an EPS of 1.

18 yuan.

Maintain target price at 26.

16 yuan, corresponding to 21 times PE in 2019, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: safety production risks, risks of falling prices of vitamins and methionine and other products, risks of overcapacity, expected distribution of methionine production, risk of weakening downstream demand such as aquaculture, risk of sharp decline in flavor and fragrance prices, and lower-than-expected sales of new materialsRisks of fluctuations in raw material prices, risks of Sino-US trade disputes, risks of exchange rate changes, and risks that the global economy continues to exceed expectations.

Jerry shares (002353): Interim report performance forecast exceeded expectations for six consecutive quarters of outstanding performance

Jerry shares (002353): Interim report performance forecast exceeded expectations for six consecutive quarters of outstanding performance

Event: On July 5th, Jerry’s shares issued a preview of the 2019 interim results.


21 ppm, an increase of 150% -180% per year.

It is expected to grow by more than 134% in the second quarter.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in Q1 2019 was 1.

100,000 yuan, an increase of 224 every year.

56%, expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in the second quarter3.


11 million, an increase of 134 each year.

00% -170.

79%, the second quarter results exceeded market expectations.

Our preliminary judgment is that the prosperity of the domestic production and service market has significantly improved in 2018. The market’s demand for grain technical services and drilling and completion equipment has rapidly increased, and the company’s orders have increased. Among them, the revenue from drilling and completion business and maintenance and accessories business has increased.It is expected that rising orders and prices will bring continuous improvement in performance.

The company’s historical performance forecast is essentially accurate and has exceeded market expectations for six consecutive quarters.

We compared the relationship between previous performance announcements and actual results since the company’s listing in 2010, and the final results all fell into the forecast or revised forecast performance range.

However, the total number of revised performance forecasts was three times, which were respectively the third quarter of 2013 (recognition of revenue from large PDVSA projects), the fourth quarter of 2014 (the downturn of the oil and gas industry), and the second quarter of 2015 (the downturn of the oil and gas industry), of whichThe total number of up-to-date performance forecasts has been twice. In the second quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2018, both were in the upward cycle of oil and gas boom.

In the last boom cycle, the company’s current business is more diversified and rich. Among the 7 major businesses, drilling and completion, maintenance and accessories business and diesel technology service revenue accounted for nearly 88%, while the repair rate of equipment and other equipment ‘s gross profit margin andThe execution of the above orders is often an important factor influencing performance changes.

In addition, due to Jerry’s relatively mature and excellent management and operating experience, per capita capacity, cost and expense management and control capabilities have continued to increase, further improving performance flexibility.

Energy security continues to ferment, and the boom in the oil service industry is rising.

Since August 2018, “energy security” has continued to ferment, adjusted from 无锡桑拿网 “stabilizing oil, increasing gas and improving efficiency” to “increasing exploration and development”. PetroChina and CNOOC have compiled a 7-year oil and gas exploration and development plan; gradually, three barrels of oil will be explored and developed in 2019.The total capital expenditure plan is 3688-3788 ppm, with an annual growth rate of 19% -22%. The domestic oil and gas industry has entered a rapid development channel, and the service market demand has increased rapidly.

Looking into the future, the investment cycle of oil companies has come, and it is likely to have the combined effect of the investment cycle and the oil price cycle. The spring of service industries in developing countries is worth looking forward to.

According to our industry chain research, the new year of the industry in the first half of the year has continued to grow at a high rate since 20杭州夜网论坛18, and equipment manufacturers have scheduled production to the end of the year.

In addition, the performance of conventional fracturing equipment at the scale of electric drive fracturing equipment has significantly improved, equipment maintenance costs have been reduced, equipment volume has been reduced, fuel costs have been reduced, and operating noise has been reduced. No PAH emissions are more environmentally friendly.The market promotion of equipment has been progressing steadily.

Earnings forecast and rating: The company has too many orders on hand and full production scheduling.

We do not adjust the profit forecast for the time being, it is expected that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.



47 yuan, corresponding to a daily PE of 25x / 19x / 16x on July 5th, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating.

Risk reminders: Oil prices have fallen sharply; PetroChina’s capital expenditure for exploration and development has fallen short of expectations; risks of exchange rate changes.

COSCO Haiergy (600026) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 net profit rose slightly month-on-month, focusing on the development of US sanctions

COSCO Haiergy (600026) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 net profit rose slightly month-on-month, focusing on the development of US sanctions

Event: COSCO Hainan Energy released the third quarter report of 2019, and the operating income of the first three quarters was 105.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 26.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

8 ‰, an increase of 8 per year.

500 million, EPS is 0.

14 yuan; net profit after deduction 5.

9 ‰, an increase of 9 per year.


By quarter, 2019Q1-Q3 net profit was 4 respectively.

3, 0.

4, 1.

10,000 yuan (2018Q1-Q3 net profit was -0.

9, -1.

3, -0.

500 million).

  Opinion: In the third quarter, the oil tanker market continued its warming trend. VLCC rents increased by 108% month-on-month and exceeded 38%.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the average daily rent of the main VLCC routes (Middle East to China) was 2.

USD 20,000 / day, an increase of 114%.

By quarter, 2019Q1-Q3 are 2 respectively.

8, 1.

3, 2.

USD 60,000 / day, exceeding 243%, 38%, and 88% respectively. The market continued to pick up in the third quarter.

Company Q3 attributed net profit to mother 1.

100 million, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

7 ‰, increasing by 1 every year.

600 million, slightly improved performance.

Dalian Oil Transportation is subject to U.S. sanctions, or it will not be able to operate normally.

The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Dalian COSCO Shipping Oil Products Transportation Co., Ltd., was listed in the Specially Designated Nationals and Prohibited by the US Treasury Department’s Overseas Assets Control Office on September 25, 2019 (Eastern Time) for reasons involving Iranian crude oil transportation business.Blockers list prohibiting US entities and individuals from accompanying business transactions.

The company announcement stated that it is comprehensively sorting out various businesses, assessing related impacts, and working hard to deal with countermeasures.

Dalian Oil Transportation controls a total of 26 VLCCs and 19 small and medium tankers, of which VLCC capacity accounts for about 3 of the current global VLCC capacity.

3%, accounting for 50% of the company’s VLCC capacity. After being sanctioned by the United States, Dalian Oil Transportation may not be able to operate normally.

On October 24, the United States Department of the Treasury released a two-month exemption license for Dalian Tanker, which was valid until December 20, and Dalian Tanker was able to complete its existing transportation business.

  Profit forecast and estimation.

US sanctions on Dalian Oil Tanker may cause it to fail to operate normally.

There are uncertainties as to whether and when the sanctions can be lifted. To be continued, we will make a pessimistic assumption for the time being, assuming that Dalian Oil Tanker’s ships will not be operational since the fourth quarter of 2019, that is, assuming that the daily rent level is 0 (not consideredDecrease in ship operating costs), non-Dalian tankers can still operate normally, assuming that the average daily VLCC rent for non-Dalian tankers is 3 in 2019-2021.

4 (assuming a Q4 average of 7) and $ 40,000 to $ 50,000 per day, the company’s forecast for 2019-2021 net profit will be rotated from 12.

7, 23.
7, 37.
800 million down to 8.3.

7, 12.

8 trillion, corresponding to EPS.

2, 0.

09, 0.

32 yuan, the closing price on October 30, 2019 corresponds to PE of 2019-2021 is 31, 66, 19 times, corresponding to 2019 PB is 0.

9 times.

Due to the uncertainty of the normal operation of Dalian Oil Tanker, we downgraded the company’s rating to “Neutral” and continued to pay attention to the development of US sanctions and the company’s response.

risk warning.

U.S. crude oil export growth exceeds expectations, crude oil shipping demand exceeds expectations, capacity growth exceeds expectations, changes in oil prices, maritime security incidents, policy risks, Sino-U.S. Trade war impact exceeds 武汉夜生活网 expectations, and U.S. sanctions prevent normal operations