The layout before the rebound: overseas investors see the new coronary pneumonia epidemic like this
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[Voice]Layout before the rebound: Overseas investors see the new coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic Source: Financial Times[Abstract]Since the beginning of 2020, the new coronavirus epidemic has triggered fluctuations in global financial markets, reflecting investors’ increasing economic growth.
Commentator Michael Mackenzie of the Financial Times (Financial Times) issued a statement on January 28 on the market situation before the outbreak, similar to the past market performance and market development after the outbreak.
The article pointed out that major overseas financial institutions believe that investors have carefully predicted the economic rebound before the outbreak, and historical experience shows that after the epidemic has reached expectations, the economy will achieve a faster recovery, and investors are expected to re-establish the target for 2020.This year’s optimistic investment philosophy captures investment opportunities brought about by a possible economic rebound within a few months, rather than replacing the abandoned market.
This article is compiled for readers’ reference.
I. Before the outbreak of the new coronavirus, investors have carefully and cautiously predicted the economic rebound. Since October 2019, the outlook for the global growth recovery and trade agreement is good, the bullish sentiment in global stock markets continues to materialize, and the index continues to grow (FTSE Global) Reached the highest, an increase of about 14%), and then entered a period of fall adjustment.
High-quality growth companies in the technology industry are the main force leading this round of stock market rise, and they are far ahead of economically sensitive value companies.
This also shows that securities investors are not entirely sure of a strong economic rebound at this year’s meeting, and that such suspicions were revealed before the outbreak.
While many investors are bullish on stocks, they expect increased government bond yields and a weaker US dollar (especially relative to emerging market currencies), and judge positions based on this.
Because the epidemic situation may lead to global economic growth, certain judgments and corresponding positions have gradually decreased recently, which is also consistent with the lingering tone of the gradual dividend this month.
It is a potential factor that affects the expectations of stock trading in 2020.
Second, after similar outbreaks in the past, financial markets quickly rebounded. Outbreaks of similar virus outbreaks in the past have been contained, and have not affected economic activities much.
JPMorgan assesses the impact of historical outbreaks on local financial markets: RussMould of AJ Bell points out that past experience in fighting the global health crisis has at least shown that once the number of occurrences reaches the previous stage, the economyA faster recovery will be achieved.
However, it is difficult for investors to predict how things will change in the short term, and the stock market will be affected by uncertainty before the epidemic is brought under control.
Third, outlook outlook The British “Financial Times” has sorted out recent key events and trends in the financial 四川耍耍网 market that are worthy of attention. The outlook for major countries’ monetary policies, bonds, stocks and commodity markets has been reviewed.
(1) Monetary Policies of Major Countries The Federal Reserve may transition from a major asset-liability expansion to a robust and organic portfolio growth model later this year.
The market is concerned about the Federal Reserve Chairman Jay after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday?
The tone of Jay Powell’s joining, especially the Fed’s balance sheet and short-term Treasury purchases.
Bond traders expect that starting in April 2020, the current operation of purchasing 60 billion US dollars of short-term government bonds will be gradually reduced and eased.
Robert Kaplan, chairman of the Dallas Federal Reserve, recently said that buying short-term 杭州桑拿 government bonds is a derivative operation of quantitative easing, which may cause asset prices to have similar effects to quantitative easing.
The Bank of England ‘s meeting on Thursday will involve whether the UK will cut interest rates. The gradual market tone may involve policymakers cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and adopting an insurance easing policy.
Yields on two-year British government bonds fell to zero on Monday.
Below 4%, close to last summer’s trough, while the pound remained steady at 1.
Above $ 30.
(2) Mark McCormick of TD Securities, a global stock market, points out that market risk indicates that the actual rebound is always earlier than the economy. It is necessary to seize the opportunity for economic rebound, pay attention to market fluctuations, and express the hope that new types of coronavirus will be available.Control will not cause damage to global economic growth prospects.
An economic rebound may occur in the next few months, and investors holding risky assets still need to respond fully.
He expects that the market will re-examine the impact of the policy of re-inflation and show composite features such as excessive concentration of unilateral positions (stretch positioning), excessive volatility (excessive momentum) and bubbles (foam value).
Morgan Stanley is optimistic about value cycle stocks, saying that “the first pullback adjustment period since October last year has been started”, but pointed out that “the S & P 500 index will not fall by more than 5%, because the currentLiquidity is still abundant, and the performance of high-quality stocks / low beta stocks / defensive stocks (S & P 500 index) has changed. Low-quality stocks / high beta stocks / conversion stocks (small stocks, emerging markets, Japanese and European stocks)) “.
Morgan Stanley said that a pullback adjustment is good for the bull market and not bad for the current stock market.
Over the past decade, investment strategies to buy high-quality growth company stocks after a short period of decline have been tried and tested.
In order to usher in a possible economic recovery, it will hold value-type cyclical stocks, which have been most leveraged by improved economic growth, and such stocks currently appear relatively cheap.
Research firm Wrightson Icap pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing measures will strengthen the existing positive momentum in the stock market.
The Fed’s capital injection is not the only or leading edge of the recent rise in the S & P 500, but it may indeed strengthen investor confidence in the market’s rise.
However, various growth indicators in the oil and aviation, hotel, luxury, mining and other industries are under pressure.
In addition, in Europe, the decline in German business confidence in January was unexpected and replaced the sentiment of investors.
(3) Global bond market The yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds is currently approaching 1.
60% (which was reached in early October last year), while the yield on 10-year German government bonds was close to -0.
4%.Air Force, the market expects these two benchmark rates to reach 2% and 0% respectively.
Looking ahead to the prospects for the U.S. bond market, Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets believes that “the retreat of the coronavirus panic will eventually have a 20 to 30 basis point impact on 10-year bond yields; however, ifInterest rates fell to nearly 1.
50% (or constant), then it reaches 1.
The possibility of the 95% upper limit is minimal.
“(IV) The price of gold in the commodity market performed strongly in January and has approached $ 1600 per exchange rate.
The international crude oil benchmark index Brent crude oil price fell below $ 59 per barrel on Monday, setting a new low in nearly three months, showing investors’ doubts about economic growth and waste of excess crude oil supply.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies conducted preliminary discussions and said they were ready to take measures, including further cuts in production, while closely monitoring the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on crude oil prices.
”Financial Times” January 28 commentator Michael Mackenzie article “Investors are taking the necessary precautions (investors are taking the necessary precautions)” (https: // www.
com / content / ea / ea799620-413a-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d), here edited by the Association’s Education and International Department Building.